Betting Blog: The Championship
Well the time is nearly upon us, the first game of the Football League season kicks off on Friday night when Nigel Pearsons Hull City and Ian Holloways Blackpool clash live on Sky Sports. Before all that though, there is still a bit of time left to get your pre-season bets on and I’ve selected a couple of markets where I think there’s a bit of value to be had this year. Leicester and West Ham lead the way in terms of title contenders but at around 9/2 for either of them to top the tree come May 2012, the odds are rather short considering no-one has even kicked a ball yet.
Cardiff to get promoted: 11/2 (Bet365)
Despite suffering back to back seasons of play off heartache I think the Bluebirds could be well in the running for another promotion push this year. Under a new manager in Malky Mackay I think they could shed the doubts that lingered about their Premier League credentials under former boss Dave Jones. While it is true that Cardiff have let Michael Chopra go in the summer transfer window, he has been replaced by the new pairing of former Rangers striker Kenny Miller and the returning Robbie Earnshaw, who departed from Nottingham Forest. Despite several further changes in personnel the squad still has a recognisable spine from that which lost out against Reading in the semi-finals last time out. Experienced players such as Kevin McNaughton, Stephen McPhail and club captain Mark Hudson will ensure the team aren’t fazed by the task that lies in front of them while new additions such as Aron Gunnarsson and Craig Conway who joined from Coventry and Dundee respectively, will look to make an impact.
Don’t get me wrong, there are host of big names in The Championship this season as we discussed on the second of our preview podcasts but Cardiff should have no hesitation about considering themselves in with a chance of promotion. The likes of David Marshall and Peter Whittingham mean Cardiff’s first choice starting 11 will challenge anyone on their day. New boss Mackay, who joined from Watford after Jones’ departure will be keen to prove his worth when given more resources than he has had access to before. His signings to me look quite shrewd and although Middlesbrough have shown in recent years that players from The Scottish Premier League aren’t always successful in their first season in The Championship but I’ve got more faith in Cardiff’s newly acquired crop. I think they are a decent shot to get promoted and at 11/2 are a tasty price to boot.
Craig Mackail-Smith to be Top Goal Scorer: 18/1 (each way bet with Victor Chandler)
The 27 year old English striker is the jewel in the crown of Gus Poyet’s newly promoted and somewhat revamped Brighton side. Mackail-Smith joins the club from Peterborough after another impressive season in League One which ended in promotion for Posh via the play-offs in a memorable game against Huddersfield Town at Old Trafford. With an impressive 35 goals in all competitions last season the former Dagenham and Redbrige frontman was the most prolific striker in the whole of The Football League. Poyet swooped in early July and paid the hefty £2.5m price tag that was demanded by Peterborough, although if his goals ensure Brighton remain in the division this year and possibly even better, that £2.5m will seem like a bargain.
Although he struggled in patches the last time he played at Championship level two years ago, Mackail-Smith still scored 10 league goals in a season where Peterborough never really looked like retaining their second tier status. Brighton fans will hope he can find his feet a little quicker this year and that he gets more service than in 2009/10 season. I think he could well be in amongst the top goal scorers this season and he is definitely a value bet at 18/1 when most firms are paying out 1/4 odds for places 2,3,4 and with question marks over the future of frontrunners Shane Long and Nicky Maynard, he is certainly a decent shout for the season ahead.
That concludes the Championship pre-season bets from me. There will be similar selections on the Blog throughout the season and from across all three divisions. Until then, Good luck and gamble responsibly!
